The India-Pakistan Conflict Is Testing the Threshold for Nuclear War

Pakistan’s veiled nuclear threat probes the limits of a theory that atomic weapons deter all-out war but make smaller conflicts more likely. 

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Illustration: Matt Williams for Bloomberg

For several hours on Saturday, May 10, it looked like the India-Pakistan conflict risked spiraling into nuclear war.

Pakistani security sources leaked to a range of media organizations that the country’s innocuously named National Command Authority, which is responsible for handling nuclear weapons, would hold an urgent meeting. Although the government denied the reports a few hours later, the implicit threat had its intended effect: The US and other nations raced to calm things down, eventually producing a ceasefire that is still holding roughly two weeks later.