Explainer

Cuba Is Out of Oil. Can the Regime Survive?

An oil tanker offshore in Matanzas, Cuba in March.Source: AFP/Getty Images

Ever since US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 and launched an attack on Iran, Washington has been warning that Cuba will be next. Under a US-imposed economic blockade, the island has received almost no fuel in 2026. On May 13, Cuba’s energy minister said the country has completely run out of the diesel and fuel oil it needs to keep its power plants running.

US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly said the increasing economic pressure is designed to force regime change on the communist-run island. If it doesn’t, they’ve signaled they may resort to brute force.