Eurasia Sees Rising Odds of Right-Wing Surprise in Brazil Vote

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro — Senator Flavio Bolsonaro
Photographer: Gustavo Minas/Bloomberg

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By Felipe Saturnino and Daniela Milanese

May 15, 2026 at 4:42 PM UTC

Leia em português

Analysts are underestimating the chances that a right-wing candidate other than Senator Flavio Bolsonaro reaches Brazil’s runoff election against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, according to Eurasia Group.