Korea Benchmark Bond Yield Tops 4% as Rate-Hike Bets Grow

South Korea’s 10-year bond yield rose above 4% for the first time since late 2023, as an oil shock tied to the Iran conflict leads traders to expect bigger interest rate hikes.

The repricing is also gathering pace as an AI-driven memory-chip upcycle underpins growth, prompting major brokerages to revise their Bank of Korea policy outlooks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now forecasts two quarter-point hikes this year, versus none previously, while Hana Securities Co. sees one increase, up from zero. Nomura Holdings Inc. expects the BOK turning more hawkish in its dot plot while still expecting hold through next year.