Contrarian 5% Bet on 10-Year Treasuries Is Gaining Credibility

As US Treasury traders debate whether the 30-year yield will mount a sustained push past 5%, one market veteran is pushing a far bolder wager.

Steven Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank in London, predicts the 10-year yield will hit 5% this year because of persistent inflation. Besides a couple hours of frenetic trading in October 2023, it’s a level the US benchmark bond rate hasn’t surpassed since 2007. It’s also more than 80 basis points above the average year-end estimate of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.