A $400 AI Bet That’s Actually a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work
Two prominent economists differ on how quickly artificial intelligence will reshape the US job market.
In 2020 two economists walked into a bar in San Diego and made a bet. Erik Brynjolfsson, head of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, wagered that from 2020 to 2030, artificial intelligence would drive US labor productivity growth to more than 1.8% per year on average. Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, thought AI progress would be a little slower going. He put his money on productivity growth coming in below 1.8%. At stake: $400, to be donated to charity.
As wonky and low stakes as the bet might sound, its outcome will have a much greater impact on our welfare than almost anything Polymarket could dream up. At the heart of the wager is a crucial question: How much is AI going to affect the economy? How fast? And will it be a good thing for workers, or are we all about to be AI’ed right out of a job?