Wall Street Dares to Ask If China’s Property Turnaround Is Close

Just months into China’s housing downturn, the nation’s second-biggest developer declared the worst is over. A year later, its chairman backtracked on the call, and by 2025, it was teetering on the brink of a default.

China Vanke Co.’s miscalculation was just one of what would be many premature calls for an end to a crisis that has wiped out trillions of dollars in household wealth since late 2021. Just last November, UBS Group AG scrapped its prediction that a turnaround was imminent.