Economists Rethink Chinese Forecasts as AI Fires Up Import Surge

Economists have sharply upgraded their forecasts for China’s import growth and now expect it to overtake the pace of expansion in exports for the first time since 2021, keeping the trade balance from ballooning much beyond last year’s record.

As Chinese companies hoover up high-end chips needed for artificial intelligence, imports are set to jump to a five-year high of 5% in 2026, according to the median estimate of 17 economists polled by Bloomberg this month. That’s more than double the gain predicted in March and would follow four years of stagnation and decline.