EU Warns Iran Conflict Could Push Bloc’s Inflation Above 3%

The European Union warned that its inflation rate could surpass 3% this year if the war in the Middle East causes Brent oil prices to remain around $100 per barrel and gas prices stay elevated for an extended period.

Under such a scenario, economic growth in 2026 would also take a hit. It would be as much as 0.4 percentage points lower than the 1.4% pace forecast late last year, the EU’s economy chief, Valdis Dombrovskis, told the bloc’s finance ministers this week, according to people familiar with the matter.