Polymarket Founder Says War Bets Are Facing Growing Resistance

Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said the prediction market industry’s war-related contracts face growing risks and acknowledged that rising visibility brings “more money, more problems” — a blunt concession from one of the sector’s most prominent figures that its flagship product threatens to become a political liability.

Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2026, Coplan argued prediction markets still serve a genuine informational function but described Iran as “complicated” and said the fog of war breeds misunderstanding.