There Is No Iran Endgame That Doesn’t Risk Chaos
Even if military success is possible, the shadow of political uncertainty will loom large over Tehran, borderland stability and Gulf security.
A man walks past destroyed buildings following airstrikes in central Tehran on March 4, 2026.
Photographer: AFP/Getty ImagesDays into Operation Epic Fury, it’s possible to discern some of what the US and Israeli plan entails, even if the full picture is still unclear.
While it’s tempting to reach for comparisons with recent military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya, there are closer operational parallels in Israel’s counter-Hamas and counter-Hezbollah playbooks in Gaza and Lebanon after the Oct. 7 attack. The pattern, in other words, is to decapitate Iran’s leadership, dismantle its capacity to wage war, and deny it the means to rearm and regroup.