A Darkly Modern Guide to Betting on War
The Iran conflict, and the way Kalshi and Polymarket handled wagers, shows weaknesses in prediction markets.
Thick smoke rises over western areas of Tehran on March 3.
Photographer: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty ImagesA few weeks ago, traders on the two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket, were furiously debating whether Cardi B’s dancing onstage at the Super Bowl constituted a “performance.” (Polymarket determined her appearance did qualify as a performance; Kalshi punted on the question and essentially gave out refunds.) Now the sites’ traders—and some outside observers—are up in arms over the markets that allowed users to bet on Iran’s future. Another day, another moral, legal and philosophical minefield for these businesses.
The Iran-related controversies generated by Kalshi and Polymarket were different, and the differences say a lot about how the two companies are positioning themselves in the sector, as well as in the debates over what role prediction markets should play in our society.