China’s Lower Steel Data Scrutinized as Analysts Flag Output Gap

Chinese steel output is drawing scrutiny as some analysts question whether it fell last year as sharply as official figures show, highlighting a discrepancy that could upend views on the country’s appetite for iron ore and other feedstocks.

The National Bureau of Statistics said last month that crude steel output dropped 4.4% in 2025 to 961 million tons. It’s the first time in six years that the annual figure has fallen below 1 billion tons, following pledges by the government to fix chronic overproduction in the industry. But analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and consultancy AME Group argue that underlying activity was significantly stronger.