Tariffs Caused Just Small China Trade Diversion, ECB Study Shows

Shipping containers at the Yantian International Container Terminals in Shenzhen, China. — Shipping containers at the Yantian International Container Terminals in Shenzhen, China.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

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By Alexander Weber and Mark Schroers

February 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC

Donald Trump’s trade levies aren’t the main reason why China is exporting more to other parts of the world, a European Central Bank study showed.

“Any tariff-related diversion appears modest and confined to a narrow set of products, indicating limited spillovers from US tariffs to third destinations,” researchers Julien Le Roux and Tajda Spital said.