Barclays Says S&P 500 Plunged 16% On Average Upon New Fed Chair

A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve — with Kevin Warsh set to take over as chair in May — will likely inject some fresh turbulence into the US stock market, based on prior leadership transitions.

Since 1930, the S&P 500 Index has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm, according to data compiled by Barclays Plc’s global head of equities tactical strategies Alexander Altmann. Such routs have been larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop for the S&P 500 during any randomly selected year.