The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline
America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.
Illustration: Saehan Parc for Bloomberg
If there’s one single consistent advantage the United States has carried since its founding, it is its ability to draw talent and expand its population. Now, as the country prepares to celebrate its 250th birthday and ponders its appetite for President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration, the US risks recording a historic and economic milestone decades ahead of schedule: Based on at least one respected estimate, 2026 may see the first real population decline in American history.
Even if that milestone doesn’t happen this year, there’s broad agreement among experts on both sides of the immigration debate that Trump’s second term is hastening a critical point — when net migration into the US stops offsetting the declining births and rising deaths that come with an aging native-born population. The more Trump cracks down on immigration, the sooner the US population plateaus or even shrinks.
A country’s population is an essential element of its economic mass. The shrinking population of China, which in 2025 recorded its lowest birth rate since Communist rule began in 1949, is one good reason it may never overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2010, and its decline has dragged on growth for years. Europe’s worsening demographics have long fed its narrative of economic malaise.
The US has for years mostly stood apart from that conversation. In 2023, when the US Census last issued long-run forecasts for the population, the main prediction was that it would decline for the first time in 2081. But the way things are going, this year the US is at best poised to record a lower population growth rate than Germany, where an aging population has contributed to its reputation as the “sick man of Europe.”
To be clear, that’s not necessarily a problem for Trump. His administration is focused on delivering on his promise to reduce the immigrant population and argues, despite the protestations of economists, that doing so will mean greater opportunities and wages for native-born workers and will reduce the cost of everything from housing to health care by reducing demand.