Oil’s Year of the Glut Begins With an Unexpected Price Surge
For much of 2025, the oil market’s surplus largely washed up into storage in China.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergIt was supposed to be the year of glutted oil markets and lower prices, but the first weeks of 2026 have instead been dominated by geopolitical spikes and supply disruption, powering futures to $70 a barrel.
President Trump’s threats to attack Iran have injected several dollars of geopolitical risk premium into crude — now at $7 to $10 a barrel, according to Citigroup Inc. — just weeks after the US removed Nicolás Maduro as Venezuela’s head of state. In a year where many had expected crude in the $50s, options traders have been busy placing bets on a rally above $90.