Bets on Surprise ECB Cut in 2026 Aim for 12-Fold Return

Traders are using options to bet on European Central Bank policymakers surprising markets by delivering a quarter-point interest-rate cut at some point this year.

A number of large wagers have been placed this week through options strategies tied to the three-month Euribor funding rate, which could pay out a total €32 million ($38.3 million) — or 12 times the amount paid — if the ECB cuts.