Bond Traders’ Big Bet for 2026 Vindicated by Soft US Job Growth
Recruiters and job seekers speak during a job fair in Chicago, Illinois.
Photographer: Jamie Kelter Davis/Bloomberg
Bond investors’ overarching wager on the path of the Federal Reserve and the Treasuries market in 2026 looks like it has room to run.
A much-anticipated employment report on Friday showed job growth was below forecasts last month, leaving intact expectations for additional Fed interest-rate cuts to support the economy. The result confirmed confidence in bets that short-maturity Treasuries, which are the most sensitive to the central bank’s policy, will outpace their longer-term counterparts this year, widening the yield gap between those maturities.