Explainer

How a Ukraine Peace Deal Hinges on Security Guarantees

Artillerymen prepare a projectile for combat operations at an artillery position in the Sumy region of Ukraine on June 19.Photographer: Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images

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By Andrea Palasciano and Donato Paolo Mancini

January 8, 2026 at 3:13 PM UTC

Security guarantees for Ukraine have been one of the key sticking points as US President Donald Trump seeks to broker a peace deal to end Russia’s war.

Trump has ruled out Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, members of which are covered by the alliance’s collective defense guarantee, Article 5. Discussions have instead gravitated toward an “Article 5-like” arrangement to deter further Russian aggression.