Immigration Decline Overstated by Survey Data, Fed Study Finds
Survey responses for the CPS fell notably for several groups from January to November 2025, but participation among non-naturalized immigrants declined by about 10 percentage points more than they did for native-born workers and naturalized citizens, the analysis pointed out.
Photographer: Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty ImagesGovernment data measuring declines in the immigrant population are overstated likely due to a drop in the number of immigrants willing to participate in surveys, according to a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The US immigrant population fell this year through November by 123,000 to 627,000, St. Louis Fed researchers estimated using employment data. That’s much less than the drop of 1.86 million people measured by the Current Population Survey, which also implies an “implausibly large” increase in the native population by 3.8 million people, the researchers said.