AI Needs Fewer Prophets and More Predictions
The debate over artificial intelligence is a case study in overconfidence. One researcher says there's a better way to predict its future.
Illustration: Mark Pernice for Bloomberg
Debates about the future of artificial intelligence tend to swing between unbridled enthusiasm and deep-seated doubt. OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman reckons AI will exceed human intelligence by 2030. Not to be outdone, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis forecasts that the rise of AI will be 10 times bigger than the Industrial Revolution, and 10 times faster. Then there are the skeptics, including Yann LeCun, who consider the technology far less transformational, as are those who warn of a multitrillion-dollar investment bubble destined to burst.
We can do better than this.