Markets Bet Bank of Canada Hikes by Late 2026 After Jobs Surprise

Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Canada’s next move will be a rate hike next year, as the country’s unexpected labor market strength suggests further monetary easing may not be needed despite US tariffs.

Traders in overnight swaps are now fully pricing a hike from the central bank by October 2026. Just a day earlier, markets were assigning some probability of Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials cutting borrowing costs over the next year.