JPMorgan Says US Yields Will Rise as Rate-Cut Expectations Wane

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. say it’s unlikely that Treasuries will replicate this year’s strong performance in 2026 because markets have priced in too many Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The bank expects the 10-year Treasury yield to climb to 4.35% by the end of next year, after dropping about 50 basis points in 2025 to around 4.08%. That places JPMorgan among the more bearish forecasters. The median estimate from economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg calls for the 10-year yield to end 2026 at 4.06%.