New Tariff Trades Show Wall Street Doubt Over Refund Payouts

Tractor trailers carrying shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles.
Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

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By Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, Irene Garcia Perez, Laura Curtis, and Reshmi Basu

November 14, 2025 at 11:30 AM UTC

Updated on

November 14, 2025 at 4:45 PM UTC

Even if the US Supreme Court strikes down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, there still appear to be significant doubts that trades betting on government refunds will ever pay out.

Several Wall Street heavyweights have struck deals with companies that could be eligible for reimbursement if the levies are found to be unlawful — an outcome that betting markets see as more likely after a hearing last week.