Goldman and Citi Split Over French Election Risks for Bonds

WATCH: Carmignac Gestion’s Kevin Thozet sees the France-Germany yield spread widening to 100 basis points.Source: Bloomberg

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By Alice Gledhill

October 7, 2025 at 10:14 AM UTC

Updated on

October 7, 2025 at 11:17 AM UTC

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are split on the outlook for French bonds given differing views on how much the market has factored in the chances of new elections.

Goldman strategists including Simon Freycenet say near-term election risks “have largely been pre-empted” by current pricing after a bond selloff following Monday’s unexpected resignation of the prime minister. That has driven the risk premium to own France’s 10-year debt over Germany to the highest levels this year.