Oil Curve Watched by OPEC Is Tanking Just Before Supply Meeting

Oil storage at a refinery in the Persian Gulf in Iran.

Photographer: Saeid Arabzadeh/AFP/Getty Images

Ever since OPEC+ started ramping up supplies in April, the group has drawn reassurance from one key oil indicator: the price curve. As it prepares to meet this weekend, that gauge is faltering.

OPEC officials pay close attention to the premium that Brent crude futures for more immediate supply command over later contracts. The positive spread — known as backwardation — has held up for months, even as Saudi Arabia and its allies fast-tracked the return of 2.2 million barrels a day. It means traders saw the oil market as tight.