Russia’s Crude Flows Jump to Three-Month High on Black Sea Surge
Higher shipments were driven by larger volumes from the port of Novorossiysk
Russia’s crude shipments climbed to a three-month high, driven by bigger volumes from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, with intensified Ukrainian drone attacks causing widespread disruption to the country’s refining system and leaving more oil available for export.
Seaborne flows were about 3.34 million barrels a day in the period to Sept. 7 on a four-week average basis, a 4% gain from the period to Aug. 31. The average smooths out big weekly swings, giving a clearer picture of underlying trends. Using more volatile seven-day figures, shipments jumped by 200,000 barrels a day to 3.9 million, tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Russia likely diverted some of its crude to Novorossiysk, and to the Baltic port of Primorsk, to mitigate export disruption after a Ukrainian attack damaged pipeline infrastructure and plants linked to the Ust-Luga oil terminal in late August, though flows from there rebounded in the latest numbers.
Bigger flows come as Moscow and its trading partners face the possibility of further sanctions. US President Donald Trump told European officials he’s willing to impose sweeping new tariffs on India and China — the biggest buyers of Russian oil — to push President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, assuming EU nations do likewise. The European Union is already weighing new sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies.
Russia has also been gradually increasing production as the OPEC+ alliance has eased supply curbs, though the size of the current hikes is still limited by compensation cuts.
Ukraine’s sustained drone strikes on Russian refineries have sharply curtailed capacity. Refinery runs through much of August slumped to the lowest monthly average since May 2022 amid near-daily Ukrainian drone attacks on refining facilities, and continued declining in the first days of September. Officials are weighing extending a gasoline-export ban for producers through October to mitigate domestic fuel supply shortages.