Bond-Market Bets on Deep Fed Cuts at Risk From Hot CPI Data

Bond traders are girding for a high-stakes US inflation report that has the potential to dent their wagers on a deep series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts starting this month and extending into 2026.

Soft jobs data and tame producer-price figures have led traders to view a quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting as a lock, with perhaps two more such steps to follow by year-end. But beyond that, the market has shifted how it sees the balance of risks in the economy — positioning now favors officials eventually slashing rates below what’s seen as a neutral level, to the point that policy spurs growth to head off a recession.