Eco Week Ahead

US Inflation to Edge Up as Powell Shifts on Job Market

Jerome Powell arrives for a dinner during the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 21.

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

A key US inflation gauge probably ticked higher last month, underscoring the challenge Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues face in balancing rising prices and mounting risks in a fragile job market.

A report Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — rose 2.9% in July from a year ago. That would be fastest annual pace in five months. On a monthly basis, the so-called core measure is seen climbing 0.3% for a second month.