Record US Gulf Oil Output to Soften 2026 Production Decline

Chevron’s Anchor oil platform.

Source: Chevron Corp.

US oil production will likely decline next year, but the scale of the dropoff will be substantially reduced by an old source of new supplies: the Gulf of Mexico.

Producers in the body of water — which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America — will bring on 300,000 barrels of new daily output this year and a further 250,000 barrels in 2026 due to projects many years in the making, according to forecaster Wood Mackenzie Ltd. These will increase production in the region to more than 2 million barrels a day, about 40% higher than in 2020.