Bank of Canada Sees Year-Long Recession in All-Out Trade War

It’s a tale of two economies for the Bank of Canada as it tries to predict outcomes of a global tariff war: a temporary stall in Canadian activity or an outright downturn that lasts a year.

The uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s trade policy prompted the central bank to publish two sets of forecasts, instead of a single projection, to capture different possibilities. It released the scenarios Wednesday as it paused its easing campaign for the first time since it began cutting rates last June.