Stock Market’s Extreme Moves Portend Lasting Trouble for Traders
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A knee-jerk reaction to President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on broad tariffs propelled US stocks to one of their best days on record last week. Ironically, that could be a harbinger of tough times for equity investors.
The S&P 500 Index’s best days in history have usually preceded weaker-than-average returns in the near term. Following its 15 largest daily gains, the US stock benchmark was higher six months later just 43% of the time, Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 1928 show. That’s lower than the 67% probability on any given day that the S&P 500 will advance over the subsequent half year.