Goldman Warns Oil Below $40 Is Possible in ‘Extreme’ Scenario

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — fresh from cutting oil forecasts twice in a week — said Brent has the outside potential to fall below $40 a barrel under “extreme” outcomes as the trade war flares and supplies rise.

“In a more extreme and less likely scenario with both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts, which would discipline non-OPEC supply, we estimate that Brent would fall just under $40 a barrel in late 2026,” analysts including Yulia Grigsby said in an April 7 note. That view does not represent the bank’s current base-case outlook, which has Brent at $55 next December.