Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Call
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists raised their recession probability assessment and brought forward the forecast timing of the next US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement.
Economists led by Jan Hatzius lowered their 2025 Q4-to-Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1% and raised the 12-month recession probability to 45% from 35%, according to a research note dated April 6.