JPMorgan Sees Global Recession Odds at 60% If Tariffs Sustained

Tariffs the Trump administration announced on US trading partners would likely push the US and possibly the global economy into a recession in 2025 if they remain in place, according to JPMorgan’s top economist.

“The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman said Thursday in a note to clients, calling the tariffs the largest tax hike on US households and businesses since 1968.