US Inflation Could Surge to 4.5%, Says Citadel Securities Top Trader
Investors are baking in at least three interest-rate cuts by the central bank this year given concerns of a slowdown, based on Fed funds futures pricing.
Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/BloombergInflation could surge and stay elevated if the tariffs unveiled by President Donald Trump remain at announced levels, according to a top inflation trader at Citadel Securities.
While there are a wide range of scenarios that could include tariffs being negotiated downward, “you could see core CPI up to 4.5% year over year,” Durham Abric, the head of US inflation at Citadel Securities, said in a telephone interview. Core consumer prices rose 3.1% in February from a year earlier. “We’re pricing both very aggressive upside on inflation in the next three to six months, but continued pressures out to the next year to year and a half.”