How to Make Better Decisions in an Age of Disinformation
A new book by an infectious disease epidemiologist shows how proof is more elusive than we realize, whether in law, science, policy or math.
Illustration: Petra Péterffy for Bloomberg
In April 2010, Adam Kucharski found himself stranded because of uncertainty. Kucharski, a mathematician, had been poised to fly from the Caribbean to the UK until the sudden eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland pumped a vast ash cloud into the air. Airlines cancelled thousands of flights — including his. The stoppage became one of the biggest disruptions to air travel in history, affecting more than 10 million passengers worldwide.
But how much danger did the ash plume really pose? No one knew. Scientists raced to run simulations to predict its spread. Airlines launched experimental flights. Confusion and conflicting opinions reigned. The debate made an impression on Kucharski, who was a few months into a PhD in mathematical modeling and suddenly “on the sharp end of people trying to prove whether or not the plane should take off,” he told me in an interview.