Indicators

Turkey Set to Exit Recession Just as Rate Cuts Add Economic Push

  • Lower borrowing costs seen helping growth accelerate in 2025
  • GDP growth data for fourth quarter to be published Friday

Shoppers at the Mahmutpasha market in Istanbul.

Photographer: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg
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Turkey likely emerged from a technical recession in the fourth quarter, supporting analysts’ expectations of stronger growth this year, aided by a cycle of interest-rate cuts from the central bank.

The $1.3 trillion economy likely rose 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of nine economists. Turkey fell into a technical recession — a term widely defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction — in the previous period after gross domestic product shrank 0.2%.