Equity Bulls Risk Sleepwalking Into German Election-Fueled Drop

  • Investors are betting on market-friendly coalition outcome
  • Complacency risks a repeat of 2024 turmoil after EU vote

Election campaign posters line a boulevard in Berlin. 

Photographer: John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images
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Europe’s equity markets are priced for a near-perfect outcome from the high-stakes German federal election. For some investors, that raises the risk of a nasty surprise.

Germany’s benchmark DAX Index as well as the pan-European Stoxx 600 have notched record after record this year, partly on optimism that Germany’s new government would carry a robust voting majority in parliament, allowing it to push through much-needed reforms and kick-start the economy.