Goldman Sees Trump Immigration Moves Shaving US Economic Growth
- Net immigration slowing to 750k a year to hit GDP by 30-40bp
- Limited impact on inflation, wages if no extreme scenario
The analysts see net immigration to the US plummeting to 750,000 a year.
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President Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions are set to have a somewhat negative impact on US economic and labor force growth, with an even more limited effect on inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists.
The analysts see net immigration to the US plummeting to 750,000 a year, shaving 30-40 basis points (0.3-0.4 percentage points) off potential gross domestic product growth this year, according to the baseline scenario in a research note published Monday. Last year, 2.8 million people immigrated to the US, according to the Census Bureau.