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Mexico Economy Shrinks Much More Than Expected as Risks Rise

  • GDP shank 0.6% in October-December, was +1.1% in 3rd quarter
  • Economists see Mexico economy slowing for fourth year in 2025

Employees work at an avocados packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico.

Photographer: Alfredo Estrella/AFP/Getty Images
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Mexico’s economy posted the first quarterly contraction since 2021, shrinking much more than expected on weaker domestic demand and uncertainty over tariffs by the US, the country’s top trade partner.

Gross domestic product fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter, more than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists that had a -0.2% median estimate. From a year ago, GDP expanded 0.6%, below the 1% median projection, according to preliminary data published Thursday by the national statistics institute.