Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gauge

  • Market-based measure shows inflation closer to the Fed’s goal
  • Officials have flagged role of imputed prices in recent upturn

A customer outside a departrment store in Palo Alto, California, US.

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
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Top Federal Reserve officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — are increasingly pointing to an obscure price gauge as a reason to maintain confidence in their outlook: “market-based” inflation.

The metric excludes a range of services where data-collectors can’t directly measure prices and have to estimate them instead. The result is a different inflation picture in recent months. Whereas the central bank’s preferred underlying inflation gauge accelerated to 2.8% in November, the market-based measure has been more or less flat at 2.4% since May.