Bonds
Bond Market Targets 5% US 10-Year Yield as Trump Swear-In Nears
- Recent US option flow sets up for bigger bond-market selloff
- Trump policies seen as inflationary; Fed bets are pushed out
Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 7.
Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
Bond traders who have been mired in a Treasury market slump are bracing for more of the same as Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, with options indicating the potential for a spike in US 10-year yields to 5% — a level not seen since October 2023.
Speculation that Trump’s policies will spur both quicker inflation and higher deficits as the US economy chugs along has sent yields on 10-year Treasury notes soaring roughly half a point over the past month to near 4.7%. A rush of corporate-bond issuance and $119 billion of US debt auctions this week — with more government borrowing expected in the weeks ahead — has added to upside pressure.