Trafigura, Gunvor Weigh Trump Wildcard Against Oil Glut in 2025
- Both companies expect supply to eclipse demand in 2025
- Other traders also sound a cautious note on market outlook
A refinery and a rail yard in Wilmington, California, U.S.
Photographer: Bing Guan/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Two of the world’s biggest oil traders are expecting the market to be oversupplied next year — but both agree that Donald Trump might just change everything.
Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group, who between them handle millions of barrels of physical oil and fuel each day, said their core assumption is that supply will eclipse demand by just shy of 1 million barrels a day next year. Those estimates, broadly in line with the International Energy Agency, assume OPEC and its allies won’t add supply — something that, on paper at least, they’re committed to doing.