Economists Boost 2025 US Inflation Forecast on Tariff Concerns

  • Bloomberg survey shows price gauges backing away from Fed goal
  • Three rate cuts seen in 2025 as core inflation averages 2.5%

The survey showed upward adjustments for growth in imports during the first quarter, indicating a scramble by some companies to stock up prior to a hike in tariffs.

Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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Economists raised their projections for US inflation next year on tariff concerns and now expect one less interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve than they anticipated a month ago.

According to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, the annual core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes the volatile food and energy categories — will advance 2.5% on average next year. That forecast for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is higher than the 2.3% projection in last month’s survey.