China to Grow Around 3%-4% in Coming Years, Top Economist Says

  • Beijing targeted around 5% economic expansion for 2024
  • Gao Shanwen says actual growth in recent years might be 2%
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China’s economy likely grows slower than official figures suggest, and a rate of expansion of around 3% to 4% is probably a realistic outlook for the coming years, according to a prominent Chinese economist.

The remarks on Thursday by Gao Shanwen, chief economist at SDIC Securities, who’s previously advised the country’s regulators and top officials, came as policymakers in Beijing signal more public borrowing and spending in 2025, with a shift of policy focus toward consumption.