What’s Left of Globalization Without the US?

Many countries will make up for lost US trade by trading more with each other.

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If Donald Trump follows through on his promised tariffs, the United States will likely trade much, much less with other countries. But what about the rest of the world? Would US tariffs end or even reverse the era of trade liberalization begun in the 1980s? Perhaps not.

Bloomberg Economics’ model of Trump’s proposed tariffsBloomberg Terminal expects that other countries will offset most of their lost trade with the US simply by trading more with each other. That points to the possibility that globalization could keep on humming — just without the US at its center. To explore that scenario, Bloomberg Weekend spoke to Maeva Cousin, chief trade and climate economist at Bloomberg Economics, about her forecast.