AI Weather Models Have Shown Promise This Hurricane Season
Researchers are working to figure out what a new crop of weather models got right about storms — and where more work is needed to make AI forecasts useful.
A satellite view of Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico moving towards Florida, on Sept. 26 2024.
Image: NOAA
When Hurricane Beryl was rushing across the Atlantic basin in July, the weather forecasting tool made by Google Deepmind, the tech company’s artificial intelligence unit, saw something other models missed. Deepmind’s AI-driven program, called GraphCast, forecast the storm would take a sharp turn away from southern Mexico to southern Texas nearly a week earlier than conventional forecasts did — and it was right.
The dramatic prediction shows the promise of new AI-driven weather models amid a destructive hurricane season that also featured Helene and Milton. With the season winding down, meteorological agencies and tech companies are taking a look at how these new models stacked up against traditional ones. Early returns suggest AI is capable of eerily accurate forecast tracks even as models still need to improve their skill with other metrics.