Prediction Markets Provide ‘Rational’ Answers, Interactive Brokers Founder Says
Prediction websites, many of which said Donald Trump was likely to win the US presidential election, were closely watched ahead of Nov. 5, even when they contradicted many polls.
Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Prediction markets have “enormous” growth potential, Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder of the retail brokerage Interactive Brokers Group Inc., said in the wake of the firm’s success during the US presidential election.
Interactive Brokers joined others in offering “forecast contracts” with yes or no answers on specific political outcomes, launching the service last month ahead of the presidential election. It also offers forecast contracts on other topics, such as the impact of global warming.